Kloepfer, Michael and Alexander Jessen: The premature termination of party coalitions.
The end of the so-called “traffic light coalition” in November 2024 demonstrated once again that party coalitions in Germany sometimes end prematurely – that is, before the regular end of the legislative period. Against this background, this essay analyzes the premature termination of coalitions from a historical, a political, and a legal perspective. In principle, a distinction can be made between two different ways in which coalitions may terminate prematurely: (a) due to disputes within the coalition (a so-called “coalition breakdown”) and (b) following the dissolution of parliament. In total, there are six different instruments that can be used to terminate a coalition prematurely. Furthermore, the essay argues that if one party leaves a coalition of three or more partners, the coalition agreements remain politically (though not legally) binding on the remaining partners. Given the significant steering effects of coalition agreements on the policies of the governing parties, the introduction of uniform rules for the conclusion and termination of coalition agreements could be discussed. [ZParl, vol. 56 (2025), no. 3, pp. 487 – 503]
Maier, Jürgen, Marco Hirsch, Kevin Brendel, Peter Hevesi, Paul Lukowicz, Jennifer Bast and Hannah Decker: Showdown on the final stretch: perception and impact of the chancellor debates in the 2025 German federal election campaign.
In the last two weeks of the 2025 federal election campaign, the chancellor candidates from the CDU/CSU, SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, and AfD parties met in three televised debates in various constellations, continuing a tradition of televised debates before federal elections that was established more than 20 years ago. Based on non-representative surveys and real-time response measurements of viewer reactions for the first two debates (N=1,495 and N=345, respectively), we show that the social democrat chancellor Scholz gained a slight overall advantage over his most important challenger Merz from the Christian Democratic Union. The candidate of the Green party performed better than any other candidate, while the candidate of the right-wing AfD showed the by far worst performance of all candidates. Although the candidates’ performance in the debates did not have a visible impact on the polls, our data confirm the potential impact of such broadcasts: almost all candidates were able to significantly improve their approval ratings, about one-sixth of the audience changed their preference for chancellor or their voting intention, and the proportion of undecided voters fell noticeably. These effects were even larger among independent voters. [ZParl, vol. 56 (2025), no. 3, pp. 504 – 517]
Ortmann, Karl Michael: The optimal majority preservation seat apportionment method.
Traditional seat apportionment methods focus on proportionality in order to ensure equal suffrage. They may violate a property called majority preservation, though, as we expose on a number of recent elections in Germany. As such, a coalition of parties that received the majority of votes in a given election may only be allocated a minority of seats in parliament. To address this problem, we employ the theory of weighted majority games. As a consequence, majority preservation of the electorate boils down to preserving the set of minimum winning coalitions in parliament. Within the set of feasible apportionments, we then single out the optimum. Notably, the divisor method with standard rounding is the solution of the democratic seat allocation problem if it avoids majority preservation failure. Hence, our approach deserves to be viewed as a systematic enhancement to the so called Sainte-Laguë-method. [ZParl, vol. 56 (2025), no. 3, pp. 518 – 533]
Baumert, Jona-Frederik: Election without choice: four reasons why Schleswig-Holstein’s local election system is in urgent need of reform.
The Schleswig-Holstein local election system features four problematic aspects, which are associated with paradoxical effects that are not appropriate to the local context. These include the fact that individual candidates sometimes do not receive a seat even though they have won more votes than an election proposal with seats; the existence of overhang and compensatory mandates, although these would not be necessary for the intention underlying the system; and the need for parties to field more candidates than half of the municipal council seats in order to receive the full number of votes, despite a widespread shortage of candidates. By far the most questionable aspect, however, is that in municipalities where only one electoral proposal is standing for election, voters have no way of influencing the distribution of mandates. This problem affects a third of all municipalities in Schleswig-Holstein. Using the example of electoral systems in other German states, it is shown that there are significantly better alternatives to the current system. Specifically, the proposal is developed to replace the current procedure with a proportional representation system based on three votes with open lists, in which half of the mandates are distributed to the candidates in the order of list and half in the order of their votes. [ZParl, vol. 56 (2025), no. 3, pp. 534 – 547]
Grotz, Florian and Martin Klausch: The election of the Hamburg state parliament on March 2, 2025: confirmation of the red-green coalition contrary to the federal trend.
The outcome of the Hamburg state election held on March 2, 2025, was principally shaped by city-specific issues, despite the extraordinary context of an early federal election just one week prior, which was triggered by the collapse of the federal three-party coalition. In contrast to the federal level, there was no widespread desire for change among the Hamburg electorate. While both incumbent coalition partners (SPD and Greens) experienced electoral losses, they nonetheless retained a parliamentary majority. Meanwhile, the CDU managed to recover from its historically poor performance in 2020, and both Die Linke and the AfD achieved modest gains. During the campaign, the SPD and the Greens had already signaled their intention to continue their alliance. Hence, the subsequent government formation reflected continuity in terms of policy and personnel. The Tschentscher III cabinet now faces the challenge of addressing problems in policy areas where the opposition parties are trying to define their political profiles: internal security, transport, and the economy (CDU and AfD) as well as housing policy (Die Linke). [ZParl, vol. 56 (2025), no. 3, pp. 548 – 567]
Neuling, Lucas: The Austrian National Council election on September 29, 2024: FPÖ becomes strongest party for the first time, but turquoise-red-pink coalition remains in power.
The Austrian National Council election on September 29, 2024 marks the endpoint of the longest legislative period since the extension of the term of office in 2007. There have been five elections since then, and it was only the second time that it took place regularly. While the coalition of the ÖVP and the Greens started promisingly in 2020, it soon faced significant disputes and could only reach the finishing line with difficulty – albeit, for Austrian standards, it was still an achievement. Nevertheless, the government’s perseverance did not prevent what had been evident in the polls for almost two years: for the first time, the right-wing populist Freedom Party garnered the most votes among the 6.35 million eligible voters in Austria, significantly shifting the balance of power to the far right. The subsequent attempts to form a government failed multiple times, costing the head of government his position and briefly opening the door to the FPÖ for the chancellorship. Ultimately, the Conservatives, Social Democrats, and Liberals formed the first three-party coalition at the federal level in Austria. [ZParl, vol. 56 (2025), no. 3, pp. 568 – 584]
Kannenberg, Oliver: All good things come in threes? Coalition negotiations in Austria following the 2024 National Council elections.
The coalition negotiations following the Austrian National Council elections in 2024 developed into the longest government formation in the Second Republic and led to an oversized three-party coalition of the ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS for the first time since 1949. Tracing the three coalition negotiations chronologically, particular attention is paid to the informal practices, party-political blockades and constitutional leeway. Thereby, the mutually reinforcing dynamic of multiple negotiation breakdowns and parallel state elections is emphasized, which forced Federal President Alexander von der Bellen to break with established traditions and repeatedly address public appeals to party representatives. The formation of the 2024/25 government is a unique example of the increasing disintegration of traditional coalition logics and offers important insights for comparative coalition research. [ZParl, vol. 56 (2025), no. 3, pp. 585 – 611]
Schroeder, Wolfgang and Hauke Bruns: The German federal election 2025: a moment of respite in a politicized society.
The federal election on February 23, 2025, was marked by high polarization, which focused mainly on the issue of migration, leading to a record turnout of 82.5 percent. The Union (CDU/CSU) achieved 28.5 percent, but fell short of expectations, while the AfD rose to become the second strongest party for the first time with 20.8 percent, doubling its vote share. The SPD suffered its worst result since 1890 with 16.4 percent, reflecting the unpopularity of the traffic light coalition, which lost a total of 19.5 percentage points. The Left, on the other hand, increased its share to 8.8 percent, thanks to a successful reorientation. The election resulted in a new political landscape in which the major parties, the CDU/CSU and the SPD, were only able to form a narrow majority, while the FDP and the BSW failed to clear the five percent threshold. The new government faces major challenges: it must overcome mistrust and make painful compromises in order to govern stably. At the same time, it faces major financial challenges, for which an unprecedented debt package was put in place by the old Bundestag. [ZParl, vol. 56 (2025), no. 3, pp. 612 – 643]
Siefken, Sven T.: The Government formation after the German federal election 2025: a bumpy path to the “working coalition”.
After the break-up of the traffic light coalition in November 2025, the question of confidence was used to bring about early general elections. Mathematically and politically, the results allowed only for a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. The Union parties had formulated expectations for rapid government formation based on a shorter and dynamic coalition agreement. But the negotiations were led based on the routines that have been established over the past decades: in a horizontally and vertically differentiated structure, exploratory talks, a main negotiation group and numerous working groups, almost 300 politicians, mostly from the federal and state levels were directly involved. In a multi-step process, they negotiated a detailed coalition treaty that stipulated the political plans for the new government, its structure and the coordination procedures in parliament and government. That the Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz did not receive the required majority in the first round of chancellor elections in the Bundestag showed that potential for conflict remains in the new coalition. The structure of the ministries – and the committee structure in Parliament that mirrors it – saw numerous adjustments. Notably, a new ministry for digital affairs and modernization of the state was formed. All in all, the government formation process showed strong continuity in formalizing the informal. [ZParl, vol. 56 (2025), no. 3, pp. 644 – 678]
Gabriel, Oscar: Is the democratic center falling apart in European party democracies?
Since the 1970s, the party systems of European democracies have undergone fundamental changes. In all countries, the centrist parties that had shaped political life for decades lost support among the electorate. The first phase of change was characterized by the emergence of new, left-liberal ecological parties, the second phase brought with it the rise of left-wing parties, and the third phase was typically marked by a strengthening of right-wing parties. This development is closely examined, using the example of twelve old and new European democracies. In all twelve countries, there has been a growth in the political fringes at the expense of the traditional center since 1990. However, this has taken place at different speeds and to varying degrees. The centrist parties, including the new ecological left, and the right-wing and left-wing parties differ from each other primarily in terms of their voters‘ attitudes toward migration and their satisfaction with social and political conditions. The most important driving forces behind these political shifts were the spread of self-actualization values and attitudes toward globalization. [ZParl, vol. 56 (2025), no. 3, pp. 679 – 705]
